The Soybean War

Soybean War: Will Turkey Win?

The biggest "damage" of the issue of customs taxes, which is frequently raised in trade tensions between the United States and China, is emerging in the agricultural sector. This crisis is unexpectedly returning to the United States through "agricultural products" and also holds important lessons for Turkey.

1. US-China Customs War: Retaliation from Agricultural Products

China has introduced additional tariffs on agricultural products in response to tariffs imposed on the United States. (Reuters)

• In 2025, China began imposing additional customs duties of 10–15% on US agricultural products (such as soybeans, corn and beef). (csis.org)
• This puts U.S. agricultural exporters in a very difficult position; especially soy bean producers suffer serious income losses. (AgriNews)

2. Market Share Erosion in Soybean

Soybean is a critical agricultural export pen for the United States. However, in recent years, market share has been significantly melting in China:

• U.S. exports soybeans to China in 2024 $12.8 billion It was at the level.)Reuters)
• Despite this, China's dependence on the United States is declining. US market share in China at 2024 %21 It declined to its level; this is a result of China preferring Brazil as its cheaper and abundant soy supplier. (worldports.org)
• Some analysis suggests that if this persists, the United States is likely to suffer billions of dollars in loss in soy exports.Successful Farming)

These developments put a great alarm on U.S. farmers. Because exports to China are the basis for the income of many farmers.

3. Situation in Turkey: Soy and Agricultural Land Potential

Turkey can learn from this issue, both in terms of its current agricultural potential and in terms of a lack of strategic agricultural policy.

• First of all, Turkey's soy production is very inadequate: in 2023 it is estimated that 175,000 tons As production is carried out, 3 million tons Soy imports occurred at the level. This means a great dependence on the outside.
• Turkey also suffers losses in terms of its agricultural area. According to the report, in the last 22 years, approximately 2.5 million hectares The farmland has been lost.)News)
• In line with this land potential:
  • 1 million hectares of soy: TRY 50 billion
  • 1 million hectares of barley: TRY 20 billion
  • 1 million hectares of wheat: TRY 35 billion
  • 1 million hectares of corn: TRY 50 billion

Such projections show how profitable a strategic agricultural planning can be.

4. Strategic Message: Why Should Turkey Refocus on Agriculture?

This economic crisis is not only affecting the United States, it is reshaping global agricultural dynamics. Turkey is in a strategic position to benefit from this transformation:

1. An opportunity to reclaim farmland
   • If Turkey's uncultivated or out-of-farm land is strategically assessed (for example, through public-private cooperation), both production increases and economic income is created.
   • There is a potential for arable land, especially in spite of large agricultural land losses. (media.setav.org)
2. Reducing dependency on imports
   • Increasing domestic production in strategic agricultural inputs such as soy increases resilience to external shocks.
   • It makes a huge profit in terms of both food safety and foreign exchange output.
3. New models of agricultural financing
   • The state-sponsored mass funding approach can make agriculture an investment class independent of traditional loans. An attractive, supportive structure can be built on the investor.
   • This model can be modelled as an innovative method for bringing fertile uncultivated land into the economy.
4. Strategic planning and the need for institutional capacity
   • For agricultural strategies to be successful, a "strong team" and a "strategic vision" are required. Increasing domestic agricultural capacity is only possible with planned policies.
   • Also, 13. The preparation of documents such as the Development Plan, not only with infrastructure projects, but with integration with artificial intelligence, agricultural technologies and innovation, will bring about the use of the necessity of the age and the evolution of modern agriculture.

5. Conclusion: Lessons to Learn from the "Unexpected Attack"

• While the U.S.-China trade war has hit hard through agriculture, this in fact marks a lasting rebalancing of global agricultural trade.
• Turkey may emerge from this crisis not as a passive audience, but as an active actor. If it mobilizes its current agricultural potential with a strategic vision, it not only supports the domestic market but gains a significant advantage in long-term macroeconomic stability and food security.
• However, political will, institutional capacity, innovative financing mechanisms and a strong strategic plan are essential in order to bring this potential to life. Visionary, these things must be done with a systematic approach.