We have really had a hard time following developments in the Middle East at a dizzying pace over the past two weeks regarding Syria. We look at the situation from a different perspective, as our main topic is foreign trade and Syria is our border neighbor. Let us now look together, with the expected developments in post-Assad Syria and Turkey foreign trade, with political and economic dynamics in the region. Here are the highlights:

– Reconstruction Process: With the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkey is expected to play a key role in rebuilding Syria. Turkish companies can participate in important projects in Syria in areas such as construction, infrastructure and energy. This could pave the way for increased trade between Turkey and Syria.

– Export and Import Data: As of 2024, Turkey's exports to Syria amounted to $1.5 billion. Among the export items, food, building materials and textile products stand out. Imports are more limited and limited to agricultural products and some raw materials.

– Increase in Trade Volume: Trade Minister Omar Bolat has made statements that trade with Syria will accelerate. In this context, it was stated that Turkey's imports from Syria amounted to $363.5 million and its exports amounted to about $2 billion.

– Agriculture and Energy Collaborations: Significant cooperation is expected between Turkey and Syria in the agricultural, construction and energy sectors. New trade routes are likely to be opened, especially through agricultural products and energy sources.

– Cooperation with the EU: Turkey is expected to cooperate with the European Union in the reconstruction process in Syria. The EU plans to provide funding to support Turkey in the process.

These developments will play an important role in shaping Turkey-Syrian foreign trade in the post-Assad period.

Syrian Citizens Return to their Country with the Completion of the Assad Era. What are the Negative Effects of this on the Turkish Economy?

The return of Syrian citizens to their country with the end of the Assad era could have a variety of negative effects on the Turkish economy. These effects are detailed below.

Loss of Cheap Workforce

– Fall in Employment: Syrian asylum seekers in Turkey have contributed to the local economy, often working in low-paying jobs. The return of these people will result in domestic producers being deprived of cheap labor, which will increase the costs of businesses. Especially close to the region, such as Gaziantep, and its industry is a major threat to advanced iehirs.

– Cost Increase: The loss of cheap labor will force domestic producers to employ more expensive labor, leading to increased product costs. Considering the difficulties in providing labor in labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture and construction, it is inevitable that it will have a negative impact on costs.

Effects on Economic Growth

– GSYH Fall: The return of Syrians to their countries could have a negative impact on Turkey's Gross Domestic Product (GSYH). In particular, the loss of economic contributions of Syrian workers could negatively impact growth rates. However, considering that Syrian citizens will also return to Turkey on their return to their country or take back the capital they have acquired in our country, the picture becomes more pessimistic.

– Reducing the burden on the public budget: The return of asylum seekers can reduce the cost of social assistance and services provided in Turkey. This may reduce the deficit in the public budget, but it can also bring about a contraction in economic activity. Thus, it is possible to mention that the burden on our country's budget will decrease.

Social and Economic Imbalances

– Unemployment Issues: The return of Syrians could allow more employment of the Turkish workforce. However, this can make the current unemployment problem much more complicated than solving it. Whether the domestic workforce has sufficient qualifications to increase demand is a controversial issue.

– Negative Inflation: In the event of a sudden return of Syrians, there is a risk of a negative opportunity inflation in Turkey that could cause prices to fall. This can lead to a price drop, especially for products such as automobiles and housing.

Effects on the Housing Market

– Housing Prices and Rentals: The return of Syrians could create an imbalance in the housing market. With the increase in the number of dwellings being sold, prices may be expected to fall or rents may be reduced. However, although this may occur at first, in the long term, the effect may not be on a large scale.

As a result, the process of returning Syrian citizens to their countries can have a variety of negative effects on the Turkish economy. Elements such as the loss of cheap labor, the declines in GDP, changes in the public budget, and fluctuations in the housing market are among the key economic consequences of this process.