Global Food Inflation

Storm on the Table: How the Fertiliser Crisis, Wars, and Climate Change Blow Up Global Food Inflation.

Global food inflationIt is entering a new period of pressure, with wars, problems in the supply of fertilizers, and climate change acting at the same time. Developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the ongoing effects of the Ukrainian-Russian war, and climate-related yield losses increase vulnerability in global food supply chains.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine's grain supply broken during the war years, and the permanent yield losses of climate change - these three shocks came into play at the same time. The result: nearly 40% increase in global fertilizer prices, breakage in food supply chains, and hard price rises felt by consumers on the market shelf in many countries, including Turkey.

1. Global Food Inflation and the Fertiliser Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

The US-Israel-Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, is not only an energy crisis - it is also a direct attack on the nervous system of global agriculture. The Strait of Hormuz; Iran is the only sea outlet where Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE export fertilizer.

In the first week of the war, price movements were extremely harsh:

• U.S. urea price in New Orleans port increased from $516 to $683 in one week - a thirty-two percent increase.
• Middle Eastern urea export prices rose nearly forty percent; they are sixty percent more expensive than the same period of the year.
• QatarEnergy, which operates the world's largest urea plant, stopped production due to the attack of LNG infrastructure.
• At least twenty-one ships were stranded in the Gulf, the Gulf Times reported, carrying about one million metric tons of fertilizer.

The chain effect quickly spread. India shut down three urea facilities; India's fertilizer dependence on the Gulf was over forty percent. Facilities were also closed in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Phosphorus and sulfur production also experienced a similar break; Gulf countries alone account for forty-four percent of the global sulfur supply.

2. Effects of the Ukrainian-Russian War on Global Food Supply

As the Iran war covers the headlines, the permanent damage to the agricultural systems of the Ukrainian-Russian war falls from the agenda. Whereas this four-year war remains a structural problem for global food markets.

There are several factors that aggravate the situation in the field:

• About one million hectares of farmland are contaminated with mines and unexploded ammunition; Ukraine still has to plant part of these areas.
• With the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, Ukraine's most extensive irrigation system collapsed.
• Russia's grain exports have reached record levels; The adverse weather conditions in Moscow's own territory pulled exports back by twenty percent in the 2025-2026 season.

Russia, on the other hand, has been restricting fertilizer exports since the beginning of 2022; The EU imposes additional customs duties on Russian and White Russian fertilizers from July 2025. This policy exposes the European farmer to both the Gulf and Russia fertilizer deficit at the same time.

3. Structural Risks in Climate Change and Food Supply

Losses of supply caused by climate change, global food inflation It increases the long-term pressure on you. Wars can create temporary shocks, but the impact of climate change on agriculture is becoming more permanent every year. This is critical to explaining the structural pressure on the background of food inflation.

Extreme weather events into the global economy in the summer of 2025 $50 billion He suffered loss.

• Spring frosts in Southeast Europe; It caused serious losses in fruit harvests in Croatia, Greece and Spain.
• Heat-sensitive products such as tomatoes and peppers lose yields above 35 degrees Celsius; In the Mediterranean basin, the number of days when this threshold was exceeded is increasing.
• The Stanford study: Global warming will reduce the yield of six basic crops by eight percent by 2050 – regardless of emissions.
• Potatoes, rice and wheat are among the products most affected by this change, with soil temperature and sensitivity to water stress.

4. Breakpoints in the Food Supply Chain

The three shocks were dangerous, even on their own; but their simultaneous activation broke the weak links of the supply chain.

Freight and shipping

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, container ships are forced to move their cargo to different routes. Low added value loads, such as food and fertilizer, lose priority over oil and LNG. Shipping times are increasing, insurance costs are increasing.

Packaging Materials

The Gulf region accounts for about a third of global nafta trade. Nafta; the basic input of plastic packaging production. Food packaging manufacturers will inevitably reflect this cost to retail prices.

Spring sowing window

In the Northern Hemisphere, fertilizer enters the field in March-April. The Hormuz crisis coincided with this very window. If the fertilizer does not arrive on time, or if the farmer drops the dose due to the high price, the loss of yield in this October season will be reflected on the market shelves in June-September.

5. Countries Most Affected by Global Food Inflation

The most fragile countries

• India: It imports more than forty percent of its fertilizer needs from the Gulf. Starting in June, the monsoon entered the pre-season stocking period.
• Brazil: It alone accounts for sixty percent of global soybean exports, but imports almost all of its fertilizer needs.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Over ninety percent of fertilizer use is dependent on imports; food expenditures account for much of household income.
• Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: There is no local fertilizer production; it is stuck on both sides.

The structural impasse of Europe

The EU's imports of about twenty-two percent fertilizers are still Russian. When the Gulf closed, this dependency became more apparent. In some states of Germany, nitrogen fertilizer prices rose sharply in a few weeks.

U.S.: Relatively advantageous but affected

The United States accounts for seventy-five percent of its own nitrogen fertilizer consumption from domestic production. But global commodity prices are also pushing domestic prices up. Farmer's organisation AFBF warns that 2026 manure spending projected at $35.8 billion before the war will be significantly exceeded.

6. Food Inflation and Fertilizer Prices in Turkey

In terms of Turkey global food inflationIt poses a more significant risk due to dependence on energy and fertilizer imports.

Turkey's situation is particularly severe in a number of ways:

Energy import dependency

Turkey receives most of its energy needs from outside. Natural gas from Iran via pipeline is among these suppliers. The expansion of the conflict directly threatens this line. The rise of Brent oil to $112 (a forty-percent increase compared to before the war) unexpectedly inflated Turkey's energy import bill.

The tumult in the fertilizer market

Turkey is dependent on the outside in the fertilizer raw material, which leaves the country open to any shock from the Gulf. Domestic prices rose sharply:

• Urea manure: A historic record of TRY 26,000 per ton.
• DAP fertilizer: TRY 34,750 per ton.
• Agricultural Credit Cooperatives temporarily halted the sale of fertilizer and removed the fertilizer from the campaigned sales practice.

Macroeconomic fragility

The Middle Term Program's projected oil price for 2026 was $65; the realization was $112. This difference disrupts budget, current deficit and inflation projections together. Economists predict that March 2026 monthly inflation could exceed five percent. If oil stays above $100, end-of-year TÜFE may turn to a forty-fifty band.

On the food inflation front, the picture is striking: Turkey, monthly in February 2026 36.44 percent South Sudan and Iran in global food inflation rankings with the Third World He declined to his position.

Consumers feel this at market-to-market prices; according to a report, vegetable prices in Turkey increased by thirty percent following the start of the war.

7. Possible Scenarios for Global Food Inflation

Scenario A - Short war (2-3 months)

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens as of April-May, fertilizer prices remain high, but do not reach crazy levels. Annual food inflation watches with top pressure; In Turkey, the end of the year may occur in the TÜFE 30-35 band. India barely skips the monsoon season.

Scenario B - Exploring crisis (6+ months)

In this case, damage grows exponentially. The passing of spring planting with a lack of fertilizer leads to loss of yield in summer-spring crops. Global grain and vegetable supply shrinks; 45 million more people are at risk of acute hunger, as the WFP warns. In Turkey, the end of the year TÜFE 40-50 scenario comes to the table, the central bank cannot enter the interest discount cycle.

Scenario C - Structural transformation

Even if the war is over, global fertilizer supply chains will be restructured; Europe will seek alternatives from North Africa, the United States Canada and Trinidad-Tobago. Prices will be high during this transition period. Climate change will continue to deepen yield losses independently of these two.

8. Policy Suggestions Against Food Inflation

In the short term

• The size of fertilizer subsidies for farmer support mechanisms must be urgently expanded; especially for small-scale producers.
• Agricultural Credit Cooperatives should reduce market uncertainty by establishing transparent stock tracking and order management in fertilizer distribution.
• LNG storage capacity should be increased by taking into account the risks of natural gas supply.

In the medium term

• Turkey's development of domestic ammonia production capacity has become a strategic necessity.
• Organic agriculture and soil health investments will reduce synthetic fertilizer dependence.
• Bilateral agreements with North Africa and Central Asia must be updated for fertilizer raw material diversification.

In the long run

• R&D and farmer training programs to promote climate-resistant seed varieties.
• Establishing an international platform for the establishment of a global fertilizer reserve mechanism; strategic stock system, as in oil.

Conclusion

Global food inflationNot only is it closely concerned with consumer prices, but the food and supply security of the coming period. In the first quarter of 2026, the global food system is under pressure from three separate fronts. The closure of Hormuz is an acute and severe shock; The loss of grain and fertilizer created by the Ukrainian war is cumulative and structural; climate change is a long-term pressure that perpetuates yield losses.

It is no coincidence that these three come online simultaneously - proof that the global agricultural supply chain is overly concentrated and fragile. One-third of the population passing through Hormuz, one-fifth of the population coming from Ukraine, nearly half the amount of fertilizer supply controlled by the Gulf... Should such a small number of geographical points have played such a critical role?

Food inflation should be thought of as a thermometer: it measures not only today's price, but the supply security of tomorrow. If the thermometer is showing high, it is not only necessary to prescribe medication - it is necessary to treat the source of the fire.

References

CSIS, CFR, AFBF Market Intel, Euronews, Al Jazeera, Carnegie Endowment, IFPRI, Paraanalysis, Republic, Gulf Times, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Carbon Brief, EastFruit, Argus Media - March 2026 publications.

This analysis was prepared by The Globy for the export and global trade ecosystem. theglbby.com

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