Global shipping is under unprecedented uncertainty and cost pressure as the sector that forms the backbone of world trade. UNCTAD "Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the Course in Turbulent WatersAccording to his report, growth in maritime trade is expected to almost cease in 2025.

The volume of shipping will increase by only 0.5% by 2025, according to the report. The container trade looks a bit stronger, but only a 1.4% increase is expected. This low growth, along with the risks it brings, deepens vulnerabilities in global supply chains.

Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers shape the routes of shipping. Due to tensions at critical passages such as the Red Sea, the ships have to be diverted to longer routes. This increases both distance and costs. For example, crossings through the Suez Canal are decreasing, while the route is shifting more and more around Africa. This trend has brought the "ton-mil" (the distance each ton of load) rate of transported loads to record highs of 6% in 2024.

Freight and Environmental Costs in Global Maritime

Freight fares have been showing extreme volatility lately. On some routes, prices fluctuate on a monthly basis. This increases import costs, especially in developing countries. Because the rising cost of transport is driving the final product prices up. In addition, environmental regulations and carbon costs stand out as a new element of burden in the sector.

In order to survive in difficult conditions, the maritime sector must transform not only its routes, but also its business model. UNCTAD highlights investments in digitization, green fuels, fleet renewal and sustainable port infrastructure. It also emphasises that developing countries should be included in the process in this transformation of the sector, acting on the principles of fair transit (just transit).

But there are important barriers to this transformation, such as funding deficits, lack of technological infrastructure, and regulatory incompatibility. Therefore, cooperation between public institutions, the private sector and international organizations is critical.

For İnovakademi readers, this issue is of great importance: Sectoral transformations need to be addressed with a strategic vision, not just technical. Could this tempestuous period in shipping also harbor opportunities? For example, there are significant gaps in the market for those who want to build technological innovations, environmentalist approaches, and more resilient logistics systems.

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