EU Trade Map Redraws

EU Trade Map Redrawing: Comparison of Turkey, China, US and India

The Globy, Data Analysis February 2026

As EU trade enters a new era, the physical and economic map of world trade is also changing. In recent weeks, a Chinese container ship has reached the UK's largest terminal Felixstowe via the Arctic Sea Route in just 20 days, one of the most concrete indicators of this transformation. The same distance, which lasted 40-50 days through the Suez Canal, was cut in half by the new route opened by melting glaciers. Trade routes are changing, while trade itself is undergoing a radical transformation.

As The Globy Research Team, we used ITC Trade Map data to analyze bilateral trade with China, the United States, India and Turkey, four major trading partners of the European Union during 2016-2024, on a 97 product group basis. The resulting table holds both serious opportunities and threats that cannot be ignored for Turkish exporters.

Location of Turkey, China, the United States and India in EU Trade

In 2024, under EU trade, a total of about $1.5 trillion from these four countries import He did. China is clearly the leader with $750 billion, taking more than half of this cake alone. The United States is second with $494 billion, Turkey third with $134 billion, and India fourth with $97 billion.

Everyone has grown over the last 8 years, but at different speeds. India has become the fastest growing partner, doubling its exports. China and Turkey grew at similar rates, while the United States remained relatively slow.

EU Imports from Four Major Trade Partners

The Rise of China in the EU Market

When China was called, the era of thinking about cheap consumer products was over. Almost half of China's exports to the EU come from technology-intensive sectors such as machinery and electricity-electronics. But the real earthquake happened in automotive: China increased its automotive exports by more than five times in eight years by the electric vehicle revolution. China, which is behind Turkey in 2016, is today the EU's largest automotive supplier.

There is a similar transformation in the chemical industry. China's chemical exports to the EU tripled in eight years. Tobacco products, on the other hand, had an incredible growth. On the other hand, while China still remains the largest supplier in textiles, its growth in this area has slowed significantly.

Emerging Sectors in US Export to EU

The United States is drawing a completely different profile from China in its trade with the EU. The weight of its exports are energy, pharmaceuticals and optical-measurement devices. Following the Russian-Ukrainian war, Europe's LNG imports from the United States almost exploded, and energy became the U.S.'s largest export item to the EU. In medicine and aviation, US dominance is indisputable: 86 percent of the drug trade between these four countries, 88 percent of aviation comes from the United States.

India's Rise in the EU Market

Perhaps the most surprising actor of this analysis is India. India, which has doubled its exports in 8 years, has caught extraordinary growth figures, especially in the electrical-electronics and organic chemical sectors. Diversifying the supply chain of Western companies from China, i.e. China Plus One His policy began to give concrete results to India.

Another remarkable move by India is in the energy field. India, which bought and refined Russian oil and sold it to Europe, increased its mineral fuel exports more than four times in a few years. Given the acceleration of free trade agreement negotiations with the EU in Davos, India's rise in the EU market could be even faster.

Turkey's Strong Areas in the EU Market

Turkey's exports to the EU have reached $134 billion, and this is a serious success. But the story that the data tells is not just growth figures.

Automotive Still Crown Jewelry

Although China has taken over the leadership, Turkey still ranks second among these four countries in automotive and is performing very strongly with exports of $29 billion. The important thing is to maintain and strengthen this position along with the electric vehicle transformation.

New Export Champions

One of the findings that excites us most about the data is the growth beyond Turkey's traditional export portfolio. 906 percent growth was recorded in rail system vehicles, 854 percent in the defense industry, 799 percent in vegetable oils, and 391 percent in fertilizer. These figures show that Turkish exports have evolved into a portfolio that is much wider and more value-added than the textile-automotive axis.

Geographical Proximity: Advantage Despite the North Pole

China can reach Europe in 20 days, even on the Arctic route. This time is 3-5 days by road from Turkey. In fast fashion, fresh food, automotive spare parts, and order-based production, this difference is still a huge advantage. EU adopted after COVID near-shoring (close supply) strategy makes this advantage even more valuable.

Nis Leadership

In 7 of the 97 product groups, Turkey is a leader among these four countries: copper products, food cans, carpets, cotton, sugar and cereal preparations. Turkey's position in the EU market is particularly solid in the food sector.

Competition Risks for Turkey

Electric Vehicle Pressure

China not only exports vehicles; it controls the entire ecosystem, from battery technology to software. Although the EU has introduced additional customs duties, the cost advantage remains. Time is running out for Turkey to prepare for electric vehicle transformation.

Competition of India

India is growing rapidly in the textile, iron-steel and automotive side industry, just in areas where Turkey is strong. The population advantage and free trade agreement negotiations with the EU could exacerbate this rivalry.

CBAM: New Condition of Market Access

The EU's Carbon Regulatory Mechanism at the Border (CBAM) covers pencils such as iron-steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizer. Turkey is an important exporter in all of these sectors. Suppliers unable to offer carbon footprint reporting will have to use the EU's default, often higher values. This means both additional cost and loss of competition.

Market Share Stabilization

Perhaps the most strategic warning is here: Turkey is growing, but others are growing faster. The 9.1% share of the cake has not changed in eight years. India increased its share by one point during this time. Volume growth is good, but without market share growth, long-term competitiveness cannot be maintained.

Strategic Priorities for Turkey's EU Export

Accelerate the electric vehicle ecosystem. Automotive is Turkey's largest export pen. Maintaining this position goes through creating production capacity and brand in the electric vehicle.

Preparing for CBAM and ESG compliance today. Carbon footprint measurement, digital product passport and life cycle analysis have become among the supplier selection criteria of major EU buyers. The late firm will lose the order.

Focusing on sectors that assess the speed advantage. Fast fashion, fresh food, spare parts and order-based production: in these areas, Turkey's 3-day delivery advantage does not close with any Arctic route.

Data-driven decision making. Monitoring competing countries, following sectoral trends, and determining the target market based on data is no longer a luxury, but a necessity. Companies that make decisions with data, not emotion, will come forward.

Continued diversification. Success in new areas such as the defense industry, the rail system, and energy products is no coincidence. The risk of dependence on the single sector is reduced only by diversification.

The map of world trade is being redrawn both physically and economically. Ships crossing the Arctic, China's electric vehicles, India's rise, and CBAM regulations deliver the same message: the old game plan cannot be won in the new world. Turkey has strengths, geographical location, production capacity, diversified portfolio. But it takes quick action to assess these advantages.

Source: ITC Trade Map 2016-2024 Detailed analysis report: thegnobby.com

Appendix: Data Tables

Sectoral Comparison, 2024 (billion US dollars):

Turkey's Fastest Growing Export Pens (2016-2024):

Leadership Change in Automotive (billion US Dollars):