Strategic analysis report: ab-India sta and the Turkish olive oil sector

EU-India STA and its Effects on the Turkish Olive Oil Sector

1. Executive Summary

EU-India Free Trade Agreement concluded on 27 January 2026, the European Union India It aims to significantly expand its reach to the market. In order for the agreement to take effect, the signature and approval processes must be completed. Due to the current Customs Union structure, Turkey remains unprotected against third-country goods coming through the EU, and tax inequality in the Indian market is the main focus. The analyzed data shows Turkey's olive oil exports to India totalled in 2023. $745,000 At its level, it shows that it came to a complete halt in 2024. The fact that EU-based competitors have zero tax advantages brings the Turkish olive oil exporter to a strategic crossroads. As an emergency action plan, it is recommended to sign a parallel STA between Turkey and India and update brand positioning strategies.

2. EU-India STA and Current Legal Framework

The Partnership Council Resolution 1/95, which regulates trade relations between Turkey and the EU, is critical for its indirect effects on agricultural products, although it covers industrial products. According to Article 3/2 of the resolution, goods from third countries entering the EU in accordance with customs rules can also enter Turkey without customs.

However, this creates a one-sided "open door" policy. As a result of the STA signed by the EU with India, Indian goods gain tax-free access to Turkey, while Turkey's exports to India continue to have high customs duties of between 30% and 45% imposed by India. This asymmetry causes the Turkish exporter to face unfair competition in both the domestic market and potential markets such as India.

3. Location of Turkey in the Olive Oil Market of India

The foreign trade figures shared in the table above clearly reveal the contraction and market loss in the sector:

• The Collapse in the Indian Market: India's worldwide olive oil imports in 2022 $273,881,000 While, in 2024 $36,247,784 It has suffered a decline as severe as.
• Turkey's Market Loss: Turkey's total olive oil exports to India in 2023 $745,000 At its level (this figure $414,000 It is virgin olive oil), in 2024 this figure appears to have been completely reset.
• Global Potential and Local Obstacle: Turkey's olive oil exports worldwide in 2024 $649,292,000 While it has reached a record level, its inability to exist in the Indian market is not due to product quality, but entirely to the tax barrier.
• GTIP Based Analysis: Turkey is one of the most powerful pens in the world 150920 (Raw infiltration) around the world in 2024 $296.4 million When exporting, no sale was made to the Indian market from this pen.

4. Effects of EU-India STA on Turkish Olive Oil Sector

4.1. Possible Disadvantages for Turkish Exporters

• Tax Difference: Competitors such as Spain and Italy enter the market with a 0% tax thanks to the EU-India STA, while Turkish olive oil starts the race with a cost disadvantage of about 45%.
• Substitution Product Edition: The easier entry of vegetable oils (nuts, sesame, etc.) that India is strong against olive oil in the EU market can disrupt global price balances against the Turkish manufacturer.

4.2. Potential Opportunities in the Indian Market

• Logistics and Geographical Location: Turkey's access to India via the Suez Canal can provide flexibility in logistics costs compared to the EU.
• Rising Demand: The Indian middle class' shift towards olive oil consumption with a sense of healthy living offers a huge market potential when the right deal ground is provided.

5. Strategic Road Map for Turkish Olive Oil Sector

Turkey Export Consultancy The steps to take with perspective are:

1. Initiation of the STA Process: Parallel to the EU-India agreement, it is the most critical priority for Turkey to sign its own bilateral Free Trade Agreement with India.
2. Brand Positioning: At the point where price-oriented competition becomes impossible, Turkish olive oil should be positioned as a "Premium Aegean Product" in the Indian market. Specifically 150930 Niche markets should be targeted in the (intimate) category.
3. Diplomatic Initiatives: In order to address this unfair competition environment formed by the Customs Union Resolution 1/95, exemption negotiations should be carried out in the EU in respect of revision or agricultural products.

6. Conclusion

The "zero export" data shown by the tables is a serious warning. Turkey is in danger of permanently losing one of the world's fastest-growing food markets, such as India, to its competitors unless it makes moves to overcome customs barriers in its strategic products.