What are the expectations for international trade in 2024? In 2023, high inflation and interest rates in world trade slowed economic growth, as energy markets The Russia-Ukraine war And because of the Israeli-Palestinian war, it has been subjected to fluctuations, the post-pandemic supply chain problems continue, e-commerce and digital trade have grown, sustainability and green transformation have become important, free trade agreements and regional alliances have shaped trade, cryptocurrencies and Blokzinciri It has been observed that their technology brings innovation to financial transactions. These changes are the main factors that determine the future of global trade.

2024 The Expected Trends and Developments in International Trade

The expected trends and developments in international trade for the next year, i.e. 2024, are based on several key factors;

Trade GrowthThe World Trade Organization ( World Trade OrganizationWTO) According to the "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report, global trade growth is expected to be at 3.3% in 2024. This is slightly higher than previous estimates made in April. For 2023, the growth rate has been revised to 0.8%, which means less than half of the previous estimates.
The Global Economic Situation: High inflation and interest rates, especially European Union And it's pushing the economy in the United States. Although it is promising that the COVID-19 restrictions will ease in China and energy prices will fall, it is preventing a stronger recovery due to problems in the real estate markets in China. Also, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is putting pressure on the global economy.
Changes in the Regional Composition of Trade: GDP growth rates for North America were revised upwards in 2023 and 2024, while growth forecasts for Asia were lowered. Estimates were dropped for 2024, while some increase was expected in Europe in 2023. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (BDT) region, a stronger output is expected for this year and next year.
Changes in Import Demand: Import demand is expected to weaken in manufacturing economies. Import volumes in North America, South America, Europe and Asia are projected to shrink by 0.4% to 1.2 percent in 2023. In contrast, in predominantly fuel-exporting regions, imports are expected to increase sharply due to rising revenues due to high prices.
The State of Globalization and Division in Trade: Although there are concerns over the fragmentation of trade and the decline of globalization, there is currently no serious threat to globalization. For example, the share of intermediate goods in world trade, an indicator of the state and scope of global supply chains, has declined in the first half of 2023, but is still at a relatively stable level. In addition, a small increase in the share of politically-like trading partners of the United States in total trade has been observed, but this ratio is close to pre-pandemia levels.
The Israeli-Palestinian War: Tensions in the region have a significant impact on the global economy, particularly affecting energy markets. Tensions in the Middle East crude oil pricesAs it increases, this puts pressure on major oil importers. Israel's significant role in the semiconductor industry and in the export of potas increases the potential impact of conflict on global supply chains. This can have negative consequences, especially on global trade networks that can affect the technology and agriculture sectors.
Logistics: In the logistics sector in 2024, prices seem to tend to increase in general. This increase, in particular the need for automation in supply chain and transport processes, increased emissions (e.g. Carbon inspection at the border) is due to factors such as regulations and transition to sustainable transport methods. Also, contraction and demand fluctuations in the global workforce can affect prices. In addition, capacity adjustments and increased costs in maritime and air transport can also lead to price increases. For example, the commissioning of new ships in maritime transport and the refurbishment of aircraft used in air transport could raise costs in the sector. In general, Logistics These developments in the sector could lead to price increases in both transport costs and services related to supply chain management in 2024.
Agriculture: In 2024, the agricultural sector is expected to focus on sustainable applications and technology integration. Innovative solutions will be at the forefront to combat climate change and improve efficiency. While organic agriculture and local production are increasing, digital agriculture and automation are our expectation to be widespread. Increased importance during the pandemic Global Food SafetyWe predict that it will be on the agenda again.

We wish for a happy year with these predictions as a guide for readers to understand the possible developments of international trade in 2024.

Note: On 16 December 2023, the world's 3 largest shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and MSC Following the attacks on the Red Sea, he decided not to use the Suez Canal and to stop his expeditions to this area. As much as 40% of the world's trade is carried by these 3 shipping companies. In addition, the Panama Canal Authority had already announced that it would reduce the number of crossings due to drought. In line with these developments, it is clear that the deadlines for world trade in 2024 will be extended and freight increases will occur. However; We advise our exporters to be sensitive about bidding in delivery forms such as CFR and CIF, which include the cost of freight..

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