Global Food Inflation: Fertilizer and Eggs

Global Food Inflation remains one of the key topics of the agenda in Turkey, with the impact of many factors from energy costs to fertilizer prices and food supply chains.

Why Are We in the "Proliferation" in Food Inflation?

Following Iranian-based regional tensions, the concept of a "supplied chain" emerged from the logistics reports and entered directly into the pot of the citizen in the kitchen. Let's analyze this glitch from a professional perspective, ranging from oil prices to egg bans, from the fertilizer crisis to our "championship" in the world's global food inflation league.

1. How Do Energy and Fertilizer Costs Affect Food Prices?

The shock waves created by Iran-Israel-based tension in energy markets did not just reflect on the fuel pump. The backbone of modern agriculture Nitrogen Fertilizers The cost depends on the middle of the gas and oil prices. The deepening of the supply crisis in oil and its derivatives caused global fertilizer factories to lower their production capacity or to draw costs to astronomical levels.

World Bank Commodity Markets Appearance Report This, which followed a parallel course with its data, moved the farmer's input costs to an unmanageable point. The difficulty of access to fertilizer, while lowering soil yield; combined with increased logistics costs, is what we see on the market shelves. Vegetable-fruit prices on the 250-300 TRY band It became an inevitable market price.

2. Effects of the Egg Export Ban on the Food Market

In the face of increasing domestic demand and skyrocketing prices with the month of Ramadan, the reflex of economic management has not changed again: Export ban. Although this decision, implemented in the egg special, stabilizes prices by creating surplus supply in the domestic market in the short term, from an export perspective, the situation is quite painful:

• Sunday Loss: Turkey is one of the most powerful players in the region in egg exports. As soon as the ban comes, our loyal markets, such as the Gulf countries, can face the risk of slipping overnight to competitors such as Brazil or Ukraine.
• Production Constraint Risk: The manufacturer, which closes the export door, sends the "hungry chickens" to the slaughter when it has to sell below the costs. Even if we eat cheap eggs today, it means that six months from now, we will face a much deeper supply crisis and price boom. Manufacturers' concern for the future is not a "strike of production" but a survival reflex.

3. Global Food Inflation and Price Pressure in Turkey

Unfortunately, Turkey continues its negative dissociation in the world over global food inflation. According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and World Bank Food Safety updates, Turkey along with countries such as Argentina and Lebanon in food inflation the world top 3 It protects its place.

So, why can't we get off this list?

• Exchange Rate Transition: Although we are an exporter country, our dependence on seed, fertilizer and agricultural medicine on the outside leaves prices vulnerable to global shocks.
• Logistics and Mediation Costs: The breaks in the chain from the field to the table affect the final price of the product more than the cost of production.
• Expectation Inflation: The uncertainty about the future leads sellers to pull prices up from today (price behavior disorder) by calculating the "cost to put them back in place".

4. Strategic Solutions for Exiting Food Inflation

Forecasts for the future show that Turkey will continue to watch high in global food inflation. But it's not a fate. As exporters and manufacturers, we should focus on three points:

1. Contracted Agriculture and Planning: To avoid the shock effect of export bans, long-term production planning is essential to establish an internal market and foreign market balance.
2. Entry Nativeization: The focus should be on biotechnological solutions and renewable energy investments that will reduce fertilizer and energy costs.
3. Logistics Innovation: Technological infrastructure to reduce cold chain losses will ease the pressure of "supply shortages" in prices.

As a result; The supply chains in the shadow of war have taught us: Food security is national security. Although opening and closing exports like a tap is a short-term solution, the main solution is to maintain production sustainability.

So do you think that the first step to exit this high price cycle should be technology in production or market control?

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